Every Bitcoin measurement we capture each day — not a selection of it.
Bitcoin is 906 days past the 2024-04-20 halving. The three previous cycles topped 525-546 days after theirs, so this one is about 360 days beyond that window — a comparison across three episodes, which is a pattern and not a rule.
Price sits above its 200-day mean (+16.15%) and 87.9% of the way up its 1-year range.
Capital inside crypto is at the BTC to Large Alts stage: ETH/BTC bottoming and rising. SOL also outperforming BTC. Capital flowing to large-caps first.
BTCUSD has both sides staged at 74915.6 and 87373.8; the first break is the trade.
We don't publish a cycle phase — the models that would name one have not cleared their gates; nor this flow model's next-rotation picks, which are still unproven.
Every measurement we capture for Bitcoin, in full — valuation, holder behaviour, institutional flows, derivatives and the macro backdrop, on one clock. Nothing here is a forecast: these are levels, and where a popular reading of them exists we have usually tested it and found it wanting.
73 measurements published · 30 fields withheld (row identity, the vendor's own forecasts, and its cycle-phase labels — see below) · on-chain data as of 2026-10-12
What the market pays now, against what holders actually paid. Every level below is on-chain fact, not opinion.
The same question — cheap or expensive against history — asked eight different ways. We publish the levels; we do NOT publish the folklore readings, which we tested and found wanting.
Who is in profit, who is under water, and where the cycle clock reads.
Coins do not lie about how long they sit still. This is the movement side of the ledger.
ETFs, corporate treasuries and funds — the demand that did not exist in prior cycles.
What leverage costs and where options sit.
Captured alongside the on-chain data so the two can be read on one clock.
The same metrics recomputed from a SECOND vendor (CoinMetrics), published beside the first. Two sources agreeing is evidence; one source is a claim.
This feed also carries the vendor’s own directional calls. We do not republish them, because we track how they score: 223 graded predictions, Brier 0.2787 against 0.2500 for a coin flip, predicting 60% confidence against a 45% realized hit rate. Every measurement above is published; their forecasts are not.