Every strategy we run, in the same order each time: what is on right now, then how that strategy has actually done. Drawdowns included.
5 positions, chosen from 54 that qualified out of 110 watched.
Compounds at 10.1% a year over the full simulation.
Last 12 months 28.3% at Sharpe 1.59 · worst drawdown 48%.
Yes, we show the worst drawdown. The long history is the honest shape of momentum; the recent year is the shine.
1,019 trades graded · 30% of them won, and the typical one lost 0.09× the amount risked.
With this many trades the true win rate could still sit anywhere between 27% and 33%.
The typical trade here loses money; the average is carried by a few large winners. That is what trend following is, and why the losers are cut quickly and the winners held.
Each instrument shows both sides of one bracket — whichever fills, the other is cancelled. On the 9.4-year validation history a bracket filled roughly once every 10 days per instrument — most days these stand untouched, and that is the strategy working, not failing.
Compounds at 34.4% a year over 9.4 years.
1,024 trades · worst drawdown 18.0%.
Live since 2026-03 it has taken 40 trades and is down 3.9% — a small forward sample, and so far a losing one. We show it because a backtest that never meets its forward record is marketing.
Showing 8 of 98 open positions — this book runs many small ones at once.
35 trades graded · 66% of them won, and the typical one gained 0.23× the amount risked.
With this many trades the true win rate could still sit anywhere between 49% and 79%.
Many positions, each small. The book is judged on the average across all of them, not on any one.
Returned 16.5% a year net of costs over 6.4 years, with a worst drawdown of 0.9%.
The only strategy on this page that has passed every gate we apply.
The rate has since collapsed: bitcoin funding averaged 12.9% a year across the full history but only 3.0% over the last twelve months. Forward record 23 of the 30 we require.
78 orders posted publicly so far · 1 reached their trigger and traded (0 of them profitable).
Each was published in a dated edition that is kept exactly as it went out — recently 2026-08-14 · 2026-08-13 · 2026-08-12 · 2026-08-11 · 2026-08-10 · 2026-08-09. Each edition links back and forward through the rest.
Two counters, two scopes: the 78 above counts every distinct order card ever published here; separately, the daily grader has scored 25 flagship levels day by day (25 expired untouched) — that smaller number is the one the home page quotes.
Since 2026-07-24: 733 graded · directional hit rate 54.6% · probability score 0.246 against a coin-flip baseline of 0.250 (lower is better) · expected-move bands caught 74% of realized moves, where perfect calibration scores 68.3% — catching more than that means our bands are running wider than they should.
Ahead of the coin-flip baseline so far — early, and shown either way. It updates daily and the history is append-only — a scorecard that only appears when flattering is marketing, not a record.
195 completed positions, averaging 7.0 hours each. Value lost to price moving out of range consumed 74% of every fee dollar collected.
Advertised fee yields show only one side of that race. We never name the pools we are in: fees are shared pro-rata, so pointing readers into the same small pools would dilute them and us.