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AnthonyTerminal
AnthonyTerminal
Anthony Terminal/Ethereum
Daily Outlook ↗
Ethereum outlookRebound watch; protect the thesis

Ethereum: a recovery trade is not yet a leadership change

Our preferred reading is a pressured daily trend with room for a tactical rebound. The weekly structure still provides a wider recovery framework, but the daily entry location matters. Ethereum has lost 3.2% against Bitcoin across 20 completed daily observations.

Weekly structure · daily location
01

The move that created the opportunity

The weekly chart has higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Its latest completed swing high is $2,807.34 from 21 Sept, and its swing low is $1,512.00 from 22 Jun. Price remains between those references; the position inside the range matters as much as the trend label.

The wider completed swing runs from $1,505.68 on 1 Jun to $2,807.34 on 21 Sept—an advance of 86.4%. Price has retraced 69.1% of that move. The 61.8–65% retracement lies at $1,961.26–$2,002.91. Price is below that zone. It gives us a defined area to assess, not a reason to assume the next wave has already started.

The last observed weekly structure break crossed $2,464.91 on 7 Sept toward the upside. The current price has fallen back below that reference, so the breakout needs a reclaim before it can support the same recovery argument.

Ethereum market structure

ETHUSDT · Weekly candles
$1,907.65Latest completed spot reference
Ethereum — Weekly — Binance spot · USDT9922,0823,1714,2605,35061.8–65% retracement2024-12-09T00:00:00.000Z · Open 4,004 · High 4,006 · Low 3,509 · Close 3,9592024-12-16T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,959 · High 4,108 · Low 3,102 · Close 3,2822024-12-23T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,282 · High 3,548 · Low 3,217 · Close 3,3562024-12-30T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,356 · High 3,675 · Low 3,305 · Close 3,6362025-01-06T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,636 · High 3,745 · Low 3,158 · Close 3,2672025-01-13T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,267 · High 3,526 · Low 2,920 · Close 3,2152025-01-20T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,215 · High 3,454 · Low 3,143 · Close 3,2332025-01-27T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,233 · High 3,437 · Low 2,751 · Close 2,8702025-02-03T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,870 · High 2,921 · Low 2,125 · Close 2,6272025-02-10T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,627 · High 2,795 · Low 2,547 · Close 2,6612025-02-17T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,661 · High 2,857 · Low 2,605 · Close 2,8202025-02-24T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,820 · High 2,840 · Low 2,076 · Close 2,5182025-03-03T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,518 · High 2,524 · Low 1,990 · Close 2,0202025-03-10T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,020 · High 2,152 · Low 1,754 · Close 1,8872025-03-17T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,887 · High 2,070 · Low 1,872 · Close 2,0062025-03-24T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,006 · High 2,104 · Low 1,768 · Close 1,8082025-03-31T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,808 · High 1,957 · Low 1,538 · Close 1,5812025-04-07T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,581 · High 1,689 · Low 1,385 · Close 1,5982025-04-14T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,598 · High 1,692 · Low 1,538 · Close 1,5872025-04-21T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,587 · High 1,857 · Low 1,537 · Close 1,7912025-04-28T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,791 · High 1,873 · Low 1,732 · Close 1,8092025-05-05T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,809 · High 2,608 · Low 1,752 · Close 2,5152025-05-12T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,515 · High 2,739 · Low 2,323 · Close 2,4982025-05-19T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,498 · High 2,734 · Low 2,348 · Close 2,5512025-05-26T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,551 · High 2,788 · Low 2,469 · Close 2,5392025-06-02T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,539 · High 2,680 · Low 2,381 · Close 2,5102025-06-09T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,510 · High 2,879 · Low 2,437 · Close 2,5482025-06-16T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,548 · High 2,680 · Low 2,112 · Close 2,2282025-06-23T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,228 · High 2,525 · Low 2,188 · Close 2,5002025-06-30T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,500 · High 2,636 · Low 2,373 · Close 2,5702025-07-07T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,570 · High 3,040 · Low 2,512 · Close 2,9722025-07-14T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,972 · High 3,825 · Low 2,932 · Close 3,7572025-07-21T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,757 · High 3,880 · Low 3,503 · Close 3,8722025-07-28T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,872 · High 3,941 · Low 3,354 · Close 3,4972025-08-04T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,497 · High 4,333 · Low 3,491 · Close 4,2512025-08-11T00:00:00.000Z · Open 4,251 · High 4,788 · Low 4,167 · Close 4,4722025-08-18T00:00:00.000Z · Open 4,472 · High 4,957 · Low 4,060 · Close 4,7802025-08-25T00:00:00.000Z · Open 4,780 · High 4,798 · Low 4,257 · Close 4,3922025-09-01T00:00:00.000Z · Open 4,392 · High 4,492 · Low 4,211 · Close 4,3062025-09-08T00:00:00.000Z · Open 4,306 · High 4,769 · Low 4,277 · Close 4,6042025-09-15T00:00:00.000Z · Open 4,604 · High 4,670 · Low 4,412 · Close 4,4452025-09-22T00:00:00.000Z · Open 4,445 · High 4,456 · Low 3,815 · Close 4,1422025-09-29T00:00:00.000Z · Open 4,142 · High 4,618 · Low 4,082 · Close 4,5142025-10-06T00:00:00.000Z · Open 4,514 · High 4,755 · Low 3,435 · Close 4,1522025-10-13T00:00:00.000Z · Open 4,152 · High 4,292 · Low 3,675 · Close 3,9832025-10-20T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,983 · High 4,179 · Low 3,710 · Close 4,1582025-10-27T00:00:00.000Z · Open 4,158 · High 4,254 · Low 3,680 · Close 3,9072025-11-03T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,907 · High 3,914 · Low 3,057 · Close 3,5832025-11-10T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,583 · High 3,659 · Low 3,004 · Close 3,0952025-11-17T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,095 · High 3,223 · Low 2,624 · Close 2,8022025-11-24T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,802 · High 3,099 · Low 2,763 · Close 2,9912025-12-01T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,991 · High 3,240 · Low 2,716 · Close 3,0602025-12-08T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,060 · High 3,447 · Low 3,024 · Close 3,0642025-12-15T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,063 · High 3,178 · Low 2,775 · Close 3,0022025-12-22T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,002 · High 3,077 · Low 2,889 · Close 2,9512025-12-29T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,951 · High 3,167 · Low 2,910 · Close 3,1452026-01-05T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,145 · High 3,309 · Low 3,055 · Close 3,1232026-01-12T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,123 · High 3,403 · Low 3,066 · Close 3,2842026-01-19T00:00:00.000Z · Open 3,284 · High 3,285 · Low 2,787 · Close 2,8172026-01-26T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,817 · High 3,046 · Low 2,222 · Close 2,2702026-02-02T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,270 · High 2,397 · Low 1,748 · Close 2,0902026-02-09T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,090 · High 2,148 · Low 1,897 · Close 1,9672026-02-16T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,967 · High 2,039 · Low 1,907 · Close 1,9582026-02-23T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,958 · High 2,148 · Low 1,800 · Close 1,9402026-03-02T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,940 · High 2,199 · Low 1,916 · Close 1,9372026-03-09T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,937 · High 2,209 · Low 1,930 · Close 2,1782026-03-16T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,178 · High 2,386 · Low 2,026 · Close 2,0542026-03-23T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,054 · High 2,199 · Low 1,939 · Close 1,9852026-03-30T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,985 · High 2,168 · Low 1,980 · Close 2,1102026-04-06T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,110 · High 2,330 · Low 2,060 · Close 2,1922026-04-13T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,192 · High 2,465 · Low 2,176 · Close 2,2632026-04-20T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,263 · High 2,424 · Low 2,260 · Close 2,3692026-04-27T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,369 · High 2,404 · Low 2,220 · Close 2,3232026-05-04T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,323 · High 2,424 · Low 2,266 · Close 2,3712026-05-11T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,371 · High 2,375 · Low 2,091 · Close 2,1312026-05-18T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,131 · High 2,158 · Low 2,009 · Close 2,1002026-05-25T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,100 · High 2,142 · Low 1,967 · Close 2,0072026-06-01T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,007 · High 2,022 · Low 1,506 · Close 1,6912026-06-08T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,691 · High 1,732 · Low 1,603 · Close 1,7262026-06-15T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,726 · High 1,850 · Low 1,672 · Close 1,7072026-06-22T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,707 · High 1,780 · Low 1,512 · Close 1,5722026-06-29T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,572 · High 1,808 · Low 1,550 · Close 1,7862026-07-06T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,786 · High 1,833 · Low 1,713 · Close 1,8072026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,807 · High 1,947 · Low 1,750 · Close 1,8722026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,872 · High 1,967 · Low 1,843 · Close 1,9552026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,955 · High 1,981 · Low 1,822 · Close 1,8852026-08-03T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,885 · High 1,943 · Low 1,829 · Close 1,9112026-08-10T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,911 · High 1,932 · Low 1,854 · Close 1,8762026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z · Open 1,876 · High 2,547 · Low 1,872 · Close 2,4632026-08-24T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,463 · High 2,567 · Low 2,387 · Close 2,4172026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,417 · High 2,547 · Low 2,356 · Close 2,5142026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,514 · High 2,666 · Low 2,406 · Close 2,4772026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,477 · High 2,668 · Low 2,359 · Close 2,6452026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,645 · High 2,807 · Low 2,600 · Close 2,6892026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,689 · High 2,777 · Low 2,636 · Close 2,7272026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,727 · High 2,738 · Low 2,406 · Close 2,5372026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,537 · High 2,580 · Low 2,318 · Close 2,4102026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,410 · High 2,527 · Low 2,282 · Close 2,3302026-10-26T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,330 · High 2,392 · Low 2,174 · Close 2,2752026-11-02T00:00:00.000Z · Open 2,275 · High 2,450 · Low 2,060 · Close 2,1272,8071,5121,506Swing highSwing high: $2,464.91 on 13 Apr; observed after 4 MaySwing lowSwing low: $1,505.68 on 1 Jun; observed after 22 JunSwing lowSwing low: $1,512.00 on 22 Jun; observed after 13 JulSwing highSwing high: $1,981.24 on 27 Jul; observed after 17 AugSwing highSwing high: $2,807.34 on 21 Sept; observed after 12 OctBreak ↑Structure break up: $2,464.91 on 31 Aug; observed after 7 Sept9 Dec24 Nov2 Nov
2 NovO 2,275 · H 2,450 · L 2,060 · C 2,127
Latest swing high$2,807.34Latest swing low$1,512.00Wider swing low$1,505.6861.8–65% zone$1,961.26–$2,002.91

The marked pivots and retracement belong to this instrument. They are not borrowed from Bitcoin.

Chart context

Binance spot · USDT. Observations through 9 Nov. Marked swings use completed candles. The weekly shaded retracement uses the wider opposing pivot within the 26 bars preceding the latest completed swing; the most recent internal pivot remains separately labelled. Other frames use their latest opposing pair. These are chart locations, not entry signals.

02

The daily location and the next price test

The daily chart has higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Its latest completed swing high is $2,450.00 from 4 Nov, and its swing low is $2,206.28 from 5 Nov. Price is now below that low. That internal support has been lost; compare it with the wider swing anchor before declaring the whole recovery finished.

The latest completed opposing swing runs from $2,450.00 on 4 Nov to $2,206.28 on 5 Nov—an observed decline of 9.9%. Price has extended beyond the end of that move.

The immediate references are $1,856.88 below and $1,936.99 above. A recovery through the nearby daily resistance improves the rebound case, but the next higher-timeframe barrier still matters.

03

Choose the exposure—not just the direction

Ethereum/BTC last closed at 0.02825 BTC per coin. Its 20-observation change is -3.2%. That argues for treating Ethereum as a selective price opportunity rather than assuming it is the best way to express a broad crypto rebound.

A spot position can tolerate a wider structural thesis than a leveraged entry, but it still needs a point at which the idea is wrong. The chart does not justify copying someone else’s allocation percentages or treating the prior cycle high as a guaranteed destination.

Ethereum versus Bitcoin

ETHBTC · Daily candles
0.02825Last completed observation
Ethereum versus Bitcoin — Daily — Binance spot · BTC per coin0.026800.028620.030440.032260.034082026-08-06T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02952 · High 0.02965 · Low 0.02938 · Close 0.029602026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02959 · High 0.02975 · Low 0.02942 · Close 0.029492026-08-08T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02949 · High 0.02958 · Low 0.02946 · Close 0.029512026-08-09T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02952 · High 0.02964 · Low 0.02942 · Close 0.029442026-08-10T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02944 · High 0.02958 · Low 0.02905 · Close 0.029282026-08-11T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02927 · High 0.02966 · Low 0.02921 · Close 0.029602026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02961 · High 0.02987 · Low 0.02952 · Close 0.029622026-08-13T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02961 · High 0.02980 · Low 0.02954 · Close 0.029712026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02972 · High 0.02991 · Low 0.02969 · Close 0.029852026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02986 · High 0.02990 · Low 0.02979 · Close 0.029842026-08-16T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02984 · High 0.02990 · Low 0.02975 · Close 0.029832026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02983 · High 0.03005 · Low 0.02960 · Close 0.029652026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02965 · High 0.02967 · Low 0.02945 · Close 0.029632026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02963 · High 0.03342 · Low 0.02957 · Close 0.032502026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03250 · High 0.03263 · Low 0.03163 · Close 0.031872026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03187 · High 0.03236 · Low 0.03070 · Close 0.032112026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03212 · High 0.03238 · Low 0.03115 · Close 0.031422026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03142 · High 0.03195 · Low 0.03098 · Close 0.031692026-08-24T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03169 · High 0.03196 · Low 0.03126 · Close 0.031432026-08-25T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03143 · High 0.03148 · Low 0.03097 · Close 0.031102026-08-26T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03110 · High 0.03186 · Low 0.03108 · Close 0.031722026-08-27T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03172 · High 0.03189 · Low 0.03116 · Close 0.031292026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03129 · High 0.03170 · Low 0.03111 · Close 0.031392026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03139 · High 0.03144 · Low 0.03133 · Close 0.031412026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03141 · High 0.03199 · Low 0.03097 · Close 0.031122026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03111 · High 0.03148 · Low 0.03101 · Close 0.031402026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03140 · High 0.03152 · Low 0.03119 · Close 0.031242026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03123 · High 0.03127 · Low 0.03082 · Close 0.030932026-09-03T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03094 · High 0.03104 · Low 0.03069 · Close 0.030862026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03086 · High 0.03132 · Low 0.03059 · Close 0.030832026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03083 · High 0.03119 · Low 0.03077 · Close 0.031072026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03108 · High 0.03150 · Low 0.03104 · Close 0.031302026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03129 · High 0.03155 · Low 0.03127 · Close 0.031482026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03147 · High 0.03180 · Low 0.03140 · Close 0.031672026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03168 · High 0.03174 · Low 0.03141 · Close 0.031522026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03153 · High 0.03198 · Low 0.03133 · Close 0.031842026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03184 · High 0.03342 · Low 0.03181 · Close 0.032582026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03259 · High 0.03290 · Low 0.03248 · Close 0.032692026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03269 · High 0.03271 · Low 0.03216 · Close 0.032232026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03223 · High 0.03287 · Low 0.03186 · Close 0.032182026-09-15T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03217 · High 0.03233 · Low 0.03134 · Close 0.031712026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03171 · High 0.03184 · Low 0.03144 · Close 0.031732026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03173 · High 0.03225 · Low 0.03168 · Close 0.032022026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03203 · High 0.03252 · Low 0.03183 · Close 0.032292026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03229 · High 0.03270 · Low 0.03210 · Close 0.032402026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03239 · High 0.03260 · Low 0.03197 · Close 0.032582026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03258 · High 0.03307 · Low 0.03180 · Close 0.032062026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03204 · High 0.03219 · Low 0.03170 · Close 0.031942026-09-23T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03195 · High 0.03203 · Low 0.03142 · Close 0.031812026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03181 · High 0.03203 · Low 0.03166 · Close 0.031852026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03185 · High 0.03219 · Low 0.03176 · Close 0.032012026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03201 · High 0.03207 · Low 0.03178 · Close 0.031922026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03193 · High 0.03208 · Low 0.03166 · Close 0.031822026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03183 · High 0.03229 · Low 0.03169 · Close 0.032202026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03220 · High 0.03253 · Low 0.03199 · Close 0.032012026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03201 · High 0.03226 · Low 0.03185 · Close 0.032122026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03212 · High 0.03230 · Low 0.03180 · Close 0.031892026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03188 · High 0.03206 · Low 0.03147 · Close 0.031582026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03157 · High 0.03174 · Low 0.03155 · Close 0.031702026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03171 · High 0.03181 · Low 0.03141 · Close 0.031522026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03152 · High 0.03170 · Low 0.03142 · Close 0.031602026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03160 · High 0.03167 · Low 0.03139 · Close 0.031532026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03153 · High 0.03155 · Low 0.03056 · Close 0.030902026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03090 · High 0.03108 · Low 0.02981 · Close 0.030262026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03027 · High 0.03037 · Low 0.02997 · Close 0.030112026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03011 · High 0.03032 · Low 0.03011 · Close 0.030202026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03020 · High 0.03042 · Low 0.03009 · Close 0.030292026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03029 · High 0.03065 · Low 0.02988 · Close 0.029902026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02991 · High 0.03028 · Low 0.02970 · Close 0.030042026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03003 · High 0.03011 · Low 0.02944 · Close 0.029652026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02965 · High 0.02991 · Low 0.02888 · Close 0.029712026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02970 · High 0.03014 · Low 0.02953 · Close 0.029692026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02970 · High 0.02990 · Low 0.02916 · Close 0.029492026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02948 · High 0.02962 · Low 0.02884 · Close 0.029372026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02936 · High 0.02947 · Low 0.02916 · Close 0.029382026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02939 · High 0.02974 · Low 0.02921 · Close 0.029502026-10-21T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02950 · High 0.02978 · Low 0.02936 · Close 0.029422026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02942 · High 0.02956 · Low 0.02915 · Close 0.029342026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02935 · High 0.02953 · Low 0.02919 · Close 0.029402026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02940 · High 0.02950 · Low 0.02880 · Close 0.029172026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02916 · High 0.02928 · Low 0.02894 · Close 0.029082026-10-26T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02907 · High 0.02912 · Low 0.02883 · Close 0.029002026-10-27T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02901 · High 0.02920 · Low 0.02890 · Close 0.029052026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02905 · High 0.02924 · Low 0.02890 · Close 0.029012026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02901 · High 0.02905 · Low 0.02838 · Close 0.028902026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02891 · High 0.02921 · Low 0.02835 · Close 0.029032026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02902 · High 0.02917 · Low 0.02896 · Close 0.029082026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02908 · High 0.02923 · Low 0.02880 · Close 0.029052026-11-02T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02905 · High 0.02945 · Low 0.02904 · Close 0.029332026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02933 · High 0.02967 · Low 0.02925 · Close 0.029362026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02938 · High 0.03053 · Low 0.02934 · Close 0.030132026-11-05T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.03012 · High 0.03017 · Low 0.02929 · Close 0.029402026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02941 · High 0.02957 · Low 0.02934 · Close 0.029532026-11-07T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02953 · High 0.02960 · Low 0.02942 · Close 0.029532026-11-08T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02953 · High 0.02954 · Low 0.02815 · Close 0.028422026-11-09T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02842 · High 0.02867 · Low 0.02820 · Close 0.028332026-11-10T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02833 · High 0.02843 · Low 0.02752 · Close 0.027832026-11-11T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02782 · High 0.02813 · Low 0.02770 · Close 0.027782026-11-12T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02778 · High 0.02830 · Low 0.02746 · Close 0.028272026-11-13T00:00:00.000Z · Open 0.02827 · High 0.02843 · Low 0.02795 · Close 0.028250.030530.02835Swing lowSwing low: 0.02884 on 18 Oct; observed after 21 OctSwing highSwing high: 0.02978 on 21 Oct; observed after 24 OctSwing lowSwing low: 0.02880 on 24 Oct; observed after 27 OctSwing highSwing high: 0.02924 on 28 Oct; observed after 31 OctSwing lowSwing low: 0.02835 on 30 Oct; observed after 2 NovSwing highSwing high: 0.03053 on 4 Nov; observed after 7 Nov6 Aug25 Sept13 Nov
13 NovO 0.02827 · H 0.02843 · L 0.02795 · C 0.02825
Latest swing high0.03053Broken swing low0.02835

A rise in this pair means the coin gains relative to Bitcoin; a dollar rally alone does not establish that.

Chart context

Binance spot · BTC per coin. Observations through 14 Nov. Marked swings use completed candles. The weekly shaded retracement uses the wider opposing pivot within the 26 bars preceding the latest completed swing; the most recent internal pivot remains separately labelled. Other frames use their latest opposing pair. These are chart locations, not entry signals.

The paths from here

Our base case

A rebound from the next demand area

The response around $1,856.88 is the next downside test.

A recovery first meets $1,936.99, then the wider swing high at $2,807.34. These are sequential chart obstacles, not a promised straight-line move.

The decision

Prepare the price reaction and use a defined trading setup for timing. Keep the investment idea separate from the leverage decision.

What changes the call

The recovery case fails

A loss of the relevant swing low at $1,505.68 undermines the broader thesis.

The prior retracement argument must be reassessed rather than extended indefinitely with lower additions.

The decision

Do not move an existing trade’s stop to preserve the story; treat any later opportunity as a new plan.

Choose the right holding horizon

Spot preparation

The weekly context identifies the area for a broader thesis.

Stage decisions around the marked structure, not a fixed percentage copied from another portfolio.

Tactical trade

Countertrend rebounds can trade before a full daily reversal.

The currently published analysis identifies location and scenarios; it does not claim an unissued trade or account fill.

The price map

ETHUSDT · Daily swing low$2,206.28Overhead reference
ETHUSDT · Daily swing high$2,450.00Overhead reference
ETHUSDT · Daily nearby support$1,856.88Support reference
ETHUSDT · Daily nearby resistance$1,936.99Overhead reference
ETHUSDT · Weekly swing low$1,512.00Support reference
ETHUSDT · Weekly swing high$2,807.34Overhead reference
Our conclusion

For Ethereum, the useful question is whether the next price recovery also improves its relative position against Bitcoin. A rebound that fails at $1,936.99 is a different opportunity from a sustained reclaim of the higher-timeframe structure.

Go to the market plans
Observation dates and chart basis

Ethereum · WeeklyBinance spot · USDT

Ethereum · DailyBinance spot · USDT

Ethereum · 4-hourBinance spot · USDT

Ethereum versus Bitcoin · DailyBinance spot · BTC per coin

From the thesis to the position

The price map identifies the preparation area and the conditions that change the view. A model allocation or a new executed position is not implied by this outlook.

Clear direction. Defined levels. A plan for what comes next.Read the Daily Outlook